It seems that only last month, the National Retail Federation (NRF) was forecasting that import cargo at the nation’s major container ports would see its first year-over-year decline in over a year and a half in May, as the effects of tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on the supply chain increase. Fast forward 30 days, and we live in a different world now, with a bit more certainty — at least a base case — from which retailers and vendors can model their businesses until something changes.
According to the Global Port Tracker report released by the NRF and Hackett Associates, import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is now expected to surge through the summer as retailers take advantage of a 90-day reduction in tariffs recently imposed on China and other countries worldwide.
“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” offered NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.”
Gold said retailers want to ensure that consumers can find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Still, he warns that there is considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pause ends.
“We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain,” he added.
Gold said that many retailers suspended or canceled orders after the Trump Administration announced a 145 percent tariff on China in April but have resumed imports after the President announced reduced tariffs to 30 percent and a 90-day pause, lasting until August 12. The higher reciprocal tariffs on other nations have also been paused until July 9 as the administration negotiates with those countries.
“Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett added. “However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses. The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”
Of course, the NRF and Hackett Associates are making these projections without the benefit of data for May, instead assuming retailers and vendors will ramp up shipments. However, some of that assumption could be on the unrealistic expectation that all the delayed or canceled products were sitting on the dock waiting for a boat. The market is aware, based on comments made during a wide range of public company conference calls with analysts, that retailers and vendors were not entirely successful in their attempts to rush goods onto the market in hopes of hitting back-to-school sales. Some goods were canceled, some were re-directed to non-U.S. destinations, and some were put on hold until the uncertainty passed. Factories won’t have lines reserved if a brand delays or cancels an order. It goes to the next person up for most brands unless you are Nike, Walmart, Dick’s SG, or Costco, among others.
Last month, the NRF said that imports were expected to be down at least 20 percent year-over-year from June into the fall, and volume for the year could be down by over 10 percent. Nonetheless, trade did not come to a standstill, according to Hackett. Turns out, the Port Tracker team did not have the April port data when they made that forecast either.
“Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” Hackett said. But reports of empty container terminals, ships making U-turns in mid-voyage, and that the supply chain is “broken” are “very far from the truth and the reality on the ground.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.21 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), equivalent to one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in April, the latest month for which final data is available before the impact of the April tariffs was felt, up 2.9 percent from March and up 9.6 percent year-over-year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for May, when the April tariffs began to have an impact, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91 million TEU, down 13.4 percent from April and down 8.1 percent year-over-year. That would be the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023.
With some tariffs now on pause, imports are expected to rebound in June, although numbers will remain lower than last year. June is forecast at 2.01 million TEU, down 6.2 percent year-over-year; July at 2.13 million TEU, down 8.1 percent, and August at 1.98 million TEU, down 14.7 percent. Volume is then expected to drop sharply for the remainder of 2025, with large year-over-year declines seen partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes. September is forecast at 1.78 million TEU, down 21.8 percent year over year, and October is forecast at 1.8 million TEU, down 19.8 percent.
The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 12.54 million TEU, up 3.7 percent year-over-year. That’s better than the 12.13 million TEU forecast last month before the tariff pause was announced but still below the 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7 percent year-over-year, forecast before the April tariffs announcement.
Imports have been elevated since last summer, first as retailers brought in cargo ahead of an October strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and then in anticipation of an escalation of tariffs after the November elections. Imports during 2024 totaled 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7 percent from 2023 and the highest volume since 2021’s record 25.8 million TEU during the pandemic.
Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami. and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Image courtesy Port of Virginia
